A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
